[AAPL] Apple Inc. - Naive Bayes Classifier

Data updated 2023-Sep-22 (Friday)

  Note: Naive Bayes Classifier connects financial statement metrics with subsequent stock performance post earnings announcements for Apple Inc. [NASDAQ:AAPL]. This popular learning technique categorizes user-selected financial metrics and the subsequent stock performance into bins/buckets and considers conditional probabilities in those situations in order to predict performance buckets for the test cases (e.g. most recent quarter). View financial statements for underlying details

View Bayesian Classifier for other stocks
Model Setup
  Metric Calculation
Configure statement metrics above in any order with calculation options (e.g. select Quarter-on-Quarter change of Operating Margin if you consider it relevant to determining stock performance for AAPL)

Choose outcome to compare against (i.e. absolute performance or relative performance benchmarked to broader market)

Classifier predictions for the test set (dates held back from the training set) based on metrics selected
Date Underperformance Outperformance Predicted Actual
2023-May-04 1.7% 2.6% Outperform Outperform
2023-Aug-03 3.1% 1.6% Underperform Underperform
Prior probabilities for underperformance (50.0%) and outperformance (50.0%) are used as initial guesses for the classifier
Conditional Probabilities for selected metrics in the training set (quarterly financial statement data for Apple Inc. and subsequent performance post earnings announcement)
   Low|Underperform  High|Underperform  Low|Outperform  High|Outperform
Free Cash Flow Absolute values 47.1% 52.9% 58.8% 41.2%
EBIT Margin Sequential growth (%) 41.2% 52.9% 52.9% 47.1%
Debt / Asset Sequential growth (%) 52.9% 41.2% 41.2% 58.8%
Operating Cash Flow / Sales Quarter on Quarter growth (%) 29.4% 52.9% 58.8% 35.3%
Each metric has been bucketed into High & Low groups around the median
Apple Inc. performance relative to the S&P 500 index has been bucketed into Outperformance & Underperformance
Deepdive into raw conditional probabilities for selected metrics to understand prior probabilities and details of buckets created
      Underperformance Outperformance
  Intervals Range: -26.7% to +3.7%
Median: -4.1%
Range: +4.5% to +23.5%
Median: +14.1%
  Prior Probabilities 50.0% 50.0%
Free Cash Flow Absolute values
Low Range: 6 B to 17.1 B
Median: 11.2 B
53.3% 46.7% 60.0%
High Range: 18.8 B to 44.2 B
Median: 24 B
46.7% 53.3% 40.0%
EBIT Margin Sequential growth (%)
Low Range: -19.8 to -2.86
Median: -9.33
46.7% 40.0% 53.3%
High Range: -0.72 to 33.8
Median: 11.3
50.0% 53.3% 46.7%
Debt / Asset Sequential growth (%)
Low Range: -4.48 to 1.78
Median: -0.175
46.7% 53.3% 40.0%
High Range: 1.84 to 5.4
Median: 2.44
50.0% 40.0% 60.0%
Operating Cash Flow / Sales Quarter on Quarter growth (%)
Low Range: -26.6 to 4.04
Median: -6.36
43.3% 26.7% 60.0%
High Range: 4.23 to 47.7
Median: 9.74
43.3% 53.3% 33.3%
Conditional Probabilities in deepdive table are raw (observed) values. Laplace smoothed values used in the classifier above are indicated in tooltip
When a metric bucket is empty/missing, the probability is denoted NaN%. Laplace smoothing takes care of this in the classifier evaluation

Related to Apple Inc.

Information for Apple Inc.

  Current Detail : Recent daily/monthly performance & benchmark comparison
  Historical Detail : Historical performance & related information using Time Machine
  Financial Statements : Analyze Income Statement, Balance Sheet & Cashflow Statement and also compare with peers
  Bayesian Statement Classifier : Investigate historical financial statements to make probabalistic predictions using Artificial Intelligence Currently Viewing
  Anomaly Detection : Investigate unusual recent performance & technicals with historical context using AI
  Historical Seasonality : Seasonal performance by calendar months
  Dividend History : History of Dividend Yield
  Technical History : Popular Technical indicator trends (RSI, MACD etc.)
  Metric Deciles : Contextualizing recent performance & technical levels into historical decile buckets
  Dollar Cost Averaging : Dollar Cost Average (DCA) over time in your portfolio
  Moving Averages : Key Simple & Exponential Moving Averages
  Historical Analogues : Insights from closest historical matches to recent performance using Artificial Intelligence
  Chart Pattern Matching : Insights from similar historical charts to recent chart using Artificial Intelligence
  News Stories : News stories on 2023-Sep-22 on Google
  SEC Reports : Quarterly reports around 2023-Sep-22 on SEC Edgar

Compare Apple Inc. with other assets

  Market Performance : Recent performance across covered assets
  Historical Performance : Prior & Subsequent performance across assets on a historical date
  Market Technicals : Technical indicator levels across covered assets
  Market Seasonality : Seasonal performance by calendar months across covered assets
  Pair Correlations : Performance Correlations with other assets
  Beta : Volatility relative to the broad market
  Performance Comparison : Visually compare/benchmark performance with other assets over time
  Side-by-Side Comparison : Contrast with other assets over time in a side-by-side presentation
  Sector : Information Technology sector performance which includes Apple Inc.
  Industry : Hardware & Equipment industry performance which includes Apple Inc.

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